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Tag: poll numbers

McCain's only saving grace is… the media?

Posted by – 10/28/08

I think Obama will probably take the Presidency here in a week, but the disparate polls should bring us pause. How is it that consistently over the past few weeks there have been some polls with Obama up by as much as 12 points and other that put the two candidates firmly within the margin of error of each other? Obivously, there are discrepancies in the way that different polling organizations present the data, but what I want to look at is the undecideds. My hypothesis is simple, short, and may prove to be completely right or way off base here in a week. 

With all the media coverage and fawning over Obama that we’ve seen, my guess is that if someone hasn’t made up their mind about Obama yet, they probably won’t now.

They’ve certainly had ample opportunity. Why are they still undecided? Are they holding out for more information on Obama or are they waiting to see if McCain loses all his marbles? I suspect the latter, and so if McCain proves sane over the next week, I think you’ll see the vast majority of undecided voters break for McCain. The big difference maker will be this: are the polls giving Obama a huge margin right or are the ones showing a dead-heat correct? Only one of the scenarios will have my theory giving McCain the presidency. It’s quite an uphill battle for him.

Obama's polling slips

Posted by – 10/20/08

Not that I’ve ever put much stock in polls, but some of you simply require them to be the center-point of your argument — as if the sheer popularity of a candidate disproves all his negatives. For you, I present this:

RCP Average on 10/14/08: Obama 50.2, McCain 42

RCP Average on 10/20/08: Obama 48.8, McCain 44

Only 6 days ago, Obama was up 8.2 points. His lead has since dropped by 3.4 points, putting him at a 4.8 point lead.

Not that I care about polls.

Good Gravy

Posted by – 9/9/08

Anyone who saw John McCain speak would be surprised by these poll results. The convention wasn’t much of a boost to the base, apparently. And it comes as a little surprise that his support among Democrats rose from 9% pre-convention to 14% post-convention. But among independents? He sits at a startling 52%! That’s up 12% from before the convention, and 15% more support from independents than Obama holds!

I can’t wait to see the Democrats try to claim voter fraud again this year just because America chooses not to elect the party of hate, division, and small ideas.

McCain's ratings better than Obama?

Posted by – 9/5/08

THIS I did not expect. Palin? Sure. No one knew her, and lots wanted to find out who she is and what she has to say. But McCain? I suppose he’s fortunate that his lead-in was the opening game of the NFL season, non?

UPDATE: And here’s the reason the Democrats have legitimate reason to worry. According to Rasmussen in a poll out today…

Among unaffiliated voters, favorable opinions of McCain have increased by eleven percentage points in a week — from 54% before the Palin announcement to 65% today.

Cry and scream all you want about how unqualified she may be. From a strategic standpoint, this is a problem for you. Why? Because people not only seem to really like her, but the Democrats constant comparison of her to Obama has gotten people thinking. And that’s lead to this:

However, following the Wednesday night speech, voters are fairly evenly divided as to whether Palin or Obama has the better experience to be President. Forty-four percent (44%) of voters say Palin has the better experience while 48% say Obama has the edge. Among unaffiliated voters, 45% say Obama has better experience while 42% say Palin.

By wide margin, Americans are against a redistribution of wealth

Posted by – 6/28/08

I don’t really have time for a write-up on this just yet, but I saw it and thought it interesting. Gallup poll:

Americans’ lack of support for redistributing wealth to fix the economy spans political parties: Republicans (by 90% to 9%) prefer that the government focus on improving the economy, as do independents (by 85% to 13%) and Democrats (by 77% to 19%). This sentiment also extends across income groups: upper-income Americans prefer that the government focus on improving the economy and jobs by 88% to 10%, concurring with middle-income (83% to 16%) and lower-income (78% to 17%) Americans.

See the results here.